Key Points:
- US college closures may affect 20–25% of institutions due to falling enrollments, rising costs, and questions over degree value.
- Community colleges and regional universities face the highest risk as many struggle to adapt to online and flexible learning models.
- Technology and global competition are reshaping higher education, forcing even strong institutions to rethink their models.
A senior university leader has warned that a significant share of colleges and universities in the United States could shut down in the coming years, raising concerns about US college closures as higher education faces big structural change. Arthur Levine, president of Brandeis University in Massachusetts, said he expects between 20 and 25 percent of American colleges and universities to close as pressures build across the sector.
Speaking during a recent discussion at a policy forum, Levine described higher education as being in the middle of a long transformation shaped by changes in society, technology, and the economy. He said these forces are reshaping how students learn, how institutions operate, and how education is valued.
Levine emphasized that the scale of change now facing colleges is not new in historical terms. He compared the current moment to earlier periods when higher education had to adapt to major economic and social shifts.
Demographic and Economic Pressures Reshape Campuses
Levine said declining student numbers in some regions, rising costs, and shifting expectations about the value of a degree are putting intense pressure on many institutions, increasing the risk of US college closures. He noted that fewer traditional college age students are entering the system in parts of the country, while families and learners are becoming more cautious about taking on high levels of debt.
Cost remains a central concern. Levine argued that when education becomes very expensive, students and families expect clear outcomes in return. If institutions cannot demonstrate value through strong learning results, career preparation, or personal development, they may struggle to attract enough students to remain viable.
He also pointed to slow adaptation as a key challenge. According to Levine, many colleges have been hesitant to change long established models of teaching, governance, and delivery. As a result, they may fall behind as students seek more flexible, affordable, and relevant learning options.
Community colleges and regional universities, he suggested, are likely to feel these pressures most strongly. Some may respond by shifting a large share of their teaching to online formats in an effort to reduce costs and reach more learners.
Different Paths for Different Institutions
Levine said not all colleges will be affected in the same way by US college closures. Wealthier institutions with strong financial reserves and well known brands may be able to delay major changes. However, he stressed that even traditional research universities and residential colleges will eventually face pressure to rethink how they operate.
He described higher education as having gone through similar transitions before. During earlier periods of economic change, small religious colleges evolved into a diverse system that included research universities, technical schools, and community colleges. Levine believes a comparable reshaping is now underway, though the final form is still unclear.
Technology is another major driver. Digital tools, online learning platforms, and new ways of delivering education are expanding rapidly. Levine said these developments are altering student expectations and opening the door to new providers that compete with traditional colleges.
Global influences also play a role. As education becomes more connected across borders, students have more choices, and institutions face competition not only from nearby campuses but also from international and online options.
Levine stressed that periods of change often involve disruption and closures. Some institutions adapt quickly, while others take longer or fail to adjust at all. He described this as a recurring pattern whenever society changes and its major institutions struggle to keep pace.
For students and teachers, the warning highlights uncertainty but also opportunity. While US college closures may increase, others may evolve in ways that offer new learning models, skills, and pathways. Levine suggested that the coming years will be challenging but will ultimately reshape higher education to reflect a changing world.