Class of 2025: A Record-Breaking Peak
The graduating class of 2025 is projected to be the largest in the nation’s history, with an estimated 3.8 to 3.9 million students expected to receive their diplomas. However, this milestone is also a turning point, as a new report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) warns of a significant decline in high school graduates in the coming years. Released Wednesday, the 11th edition of the “Knocking at the College Door” report forecasts a steady drop, with the number of graduates expected to fall below 3.4 million by 2041.
The decline will not be uniform across the country. While the South, including Washington, D.C., is predicted to see net increases in graduates, 38 states will face reductions, with eight states bracing for a 20% decrease in typical class sizes. High-population states like California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are set to account for three-fourths of the total decline. This shift is attributed to falling birth rates, which dropped sharply during the Great Recession in 2008 and continued to decline through 2023.
Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president for policy analysis, highlighted the ripple effects this trend could have on the nation’s workforce. “From healthcare to engineering to skilled trades like diesel technicians, workforce shortages are already a challenge,” Lane noted. “A further drop in high school graduaates could exacerbate these issues, impacting the country’s ability to meet employment demands.”
Shifts in Demographics and High School Graduates Trends
The report also underscores significant demographic changes in the K-12 student population. While white students currently make up the plurality of high school graduates, their numbers are projected to decrease by 26% by 2041, dropping to 39% of the graduating class. Meanwhile, Hispanic graduates will experience steady growth, increasing from 27% of the 2023 graduating class to 36% by 2041, accounting for nearly 1.1 million graduates annually.
Black students, who currently represent 14% of graduates, will see a decline to 12% by 2041. However, the report highlights growth in multiracial graduates, particularly among students identifying as both Black and white, reflecting broader population trends. Despite these shifts, the nation’s overall graduation rate, which has plateaued around 88% in recent years, will be insufficient to counterbalance the decline in the number of high school students.
The pandemic has further intensified these challenges. Chronic absenteeism, learning loss, and reduced student motivation—especially among marginalized groups—are impacting college readiness and graduation rates. Educators like Stephanie Nelson, a school counselor at Garner High School in North Carolina, are working tirelessly to support at-risk students but face overwhelming caseloads that limit their capacity for individualized guidance.
Addressing the Crisis: Policy and Educational Interventions
The report emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impending decline. Increasing high school graduation rates and simplifying pathways to postsecondary education are critical. Experimental evidence suggests that intensive advising and early financial aid interventions can significantly boost college enrollment, particularly for underrepresented students.
At Garner High School, Nelson and her team have implemented targeted strategies to address disparities, such as providing time management workshops for Hispanic boys and intervening with chronically absent students. “Showing students that people care about their success makes a difference,” Nelson said, noting that personalized support helped all 25 students in one at-risk group graduate last year.
Nationally, reducing counselor-to-student ratios and fostering a “college-going culture” are essential steps, alongside federal efforts to streamline financial aid applications. As the nation prepares for this demographic shift, educators and policymakers must act swiftly to prevent long-term repercussions for higher education and the workforce.
